This bird has teeth, or does it?🐥

Last week we finished on Tony Robbins’s mantra about taking massive action.

This week I want to celebrate the death of my laptop with you! In doing so, I want to discuss the concept of the Black Swan and taking action about it.

Last week my 1-year-old laptop died, plain and simple. Blue screen. The kiss of death. Can you imagine what that was like for someone who has decided to write weekly newsletters and curate the best material out there for you? 

“So what? Everyone’s laptop dies at some point.” 

Absolutely, and that is the point, everyone can experience it. Let’s use it as our analogy about the randomness and unpredictability of facts. 

I had researched the best brand (let’s not get into the Mac/PC debate), checked various options and asked for an expert’s opinion. My rational mind felt at ease. I bought it. I was happy. One year on, I am not happy anymore. Don’t worry I’ll get over it (thanks for asking) but this is still annoying, as I’m sure you’d agree.

Many things around us are unpredictable and uncertain, even when we want to plan for certainty. We think that we have everything planned out and have it all sorted. Then something happens. 

It could be something that you have not considered or wanted to consider, or maybe something that you could not foresee, or that no one could foresee.

Should I have taken extended insurance? Probably. Could have I anticipated that my laptop was faulty? Maybe but I guess I didn’t want to. I could have avoided at least some of the inconvenience!

But what are unforeseeable events called? A Black Swan is an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.

Our assessment of an event’s certainty is based on two things: our experience and our rational mind. When one is missing the other assumes that it cannot happen and when both are combined it is considered evidence that it cannot happen. Until it does. 

Covid-19 (mind you Bill Gates talked about it in 2015...), a tsunami, a tanker stuck in the Suez Canal, a volcano erupting…..

Pure randomness, or are they?

Man-made or natural, they cover the same form, an unmodelled event that f*cks everything up! Excuse my French. 

This applies to your business, practices, side hustles, social life: everything, no discrimination. 

Something so remote and unpredictable that no one had really thought about it.

There are various levels of predictability, and things that we can do to mitigate our risks. We can anticipate, risk-manage, hire a professional, insure, transfer, edge, cover, save, lock, spread, diversify, and many more. This offers security. Step 1. 

It would be great to start there, but this is not even a step the vast majority take. 

I save my files in the Cloud, a friend backs things up every week. Different tool, same aim. 

Extended warranty? Arrrgghhh ….Let's not talk about that one!

If we cover our bases, a random event can still hurt but it definitely hurts less. The Swan’s bite is less painful and just becomes what we call a Grey Swan: unlikely but possible and identified.

So, indeed, what could have been a disaster should my files not have been saved was therefore a mild financial annoyance but one I could get back from. But sometimes we are barely able to overcome these unforeseen problems.

After all a Black Swan might not have teeth, it’s just a bird.

QUESTION…

What could be the top 10 risks that might disrupt what you do, want to accomplish or build? And what do you have in place should they happen?